Pepsi and Coca Cola, who control over 80 per cent of the non-alcoholic beverages industry, are unlikely to regain their pre-pandemic revenues as the second wave will impact consumption for the second consecutive summer, a report said on Friday.

“Last fiscal, a strict nationwide lockdown and subsequent restrictions over April-September severely affected peak season demand as summer months alone account for two-thirds of annual cola sales. A redux looms now,” the agency said.

Its director Nitesh Jain said sales volumes will be adversely impacted in the peak season once again due to localised lockdowns.

Consumption of the beverages at places outside the home, like hotels, restaurants, and cafés, which constitutes up to a fourth of overall sales will be impacted in the first quarter, he said.

“Though these restrictions are staggered across regions and are less stringent this time around, full-year revenue may still be 10 per cent below pre-pandemic levels,” Jain added.

Operating profits may be more resilient, driven by the continuation of cost-control measures and improving product mix, the agency said, adding this will also ensure that the credit profiles of the players are resilient.

Due to higher in-home consumption of carbonated soft drinks (CSD), demand for CSD was impacted less during lockdowns.

Its associate director Rohan Kulshrestha pegged the operating profits at 7 per cent lower than the pre-pandemic levels, as against the 10 per cent lower revenues.

The analysis assumes a decline in demand by a fifth in the first quarter of this fiscal. Recovery is expected from the second quarter with the surge in several cases and consequent lockdowns peaking in June, and the pace of vaccination also picking up, the agency said.