Understand Business And Market Cycles To Capitalise On Them

Economic and financial cycles bring both challenges and opportunities for investors. Recognizing and adapting to these cycles epitomises ‘business cycle investing.’ By aligning portfolios with macro factors, investors can confidently navigate through growth, recession, slump, or recovery phases.

Essence of Business Cycle Investing

Economic and financial cycles are inevitable. Business cycle investing involves identifying turning points in economic cycles and aligning portfolios with macro and micro factors. For instance, investors who recognized the shift in Indian business cycle in 2014 reaped substantial rewards. Each phase of the business cycle presents unique challenges and opportunities, akin to manoeuvring through varied roads. Here is a closer look at the phases.

1) Economic conditions in full swing resemble cruising on an expressway, with favourable macros, low interest rates, and robust demand paving the way for smooth sailing. This environment sees sectors like Banks, Infrastructure, Real Estate, and Capital Goods flourishing.

2) Moderate economic conditions are akin to navigating a city highway, featuring average roads and moderate demand amidst a relatively high-interest-rate environment. Sectors such as Energy, Metals, and Technology tend to thrive during this phase.

3) In a recessionary economic zone, the landscape resembles travelling on a village road, marked by poor macros, lackluster prospects, and diminished demand. This scenario calls for a portfolio tailored towards defensive sectors like Technology, Pharmaceuticals, Power, and Telecom.

Steering Clear of Rear-Mirror Approaches

Traditional investment strategies and business cycle investing diverge significantly. While traditional approaches rely on historical data such as long-term average PE, PB ratios, historical returns, and dividend yield track records, business cycle investing prioritises forward-looking indicators like economic metrics, future earnings potential, and market share growth.

Unlike traditional methods, business cycle investing emphasises proactive analysis of current economic conditions and future trends. By focusing on forward signals, investors can better anticipate market shifts and identify critical turning points.

This approach proves invaluable, especially in today’s market environment, where macroeconomic factors exert significant influence. Over the past decade, Global Central Banks, including those in India and the US, have managed volatility by implementing liquidity-boosting measures through monetary and fiscal policies. With interest rates currently at historic lows, any significant change in interest rate policy could trigger a shift in the business cycle phase.

Furthermore, the recent expansion of central bank balance sheets has increased market liquidity. However, changes in stimulus quantity or support measures could prompt significant shifts in the business cycle phase, emphasising the need to adapt investment strategies to changing economic conditions.

Seizing Market Trends

Business cycle investing provides another avenue for navigating market trends. By focusing on specific themes or trends, investors can capitalise on long-term shifts in industries or sectors. Themes such as renewable energy, artificial intelligence, or cybersecurity have attracted significant interest from investors seeking to align their portfolios with long-term trends.

By comprehending economic cycles and identifying opportunities within those cycles, investors can construct portfolios resilient to changing market conditions while capturing long-term growth opportunities.

As the investment landscape evolves, funds with flexible mandates capable of swiftly transitioning between themes are likely to thrive. However, success in this dynamic environment necessitates a keen focus on macroeconomic factors, prudent sector allocation, and a clear investment philosophy.

Optimising Investment Choices

While equities offer promising prospects, heightened volatility is anticipated owing the various geo-political developments, central bank actions, elections underway in several of the large economies etc. Each of these developments hold the potential to create a significant impact on the markets. So, investors can consider investing in a well-diversified portfolio adept at navigating various sectors with ease. Here, business cycle based offerings known as business cycle fund can be useful. At present, investors have over 10+ funds to choose from.

The portfolio of such an offering will have a top-down approach, coupled with opportunistic agility and strategic sector allocation. The primary driver will be macro trends. Basis this trend, sector allocation will be done and at times basis the fund manager’s call, the portfolio may tend to be concentrated in nature. As a result, it is advisable that investors with reasonably high risk appetite and an investment horizon of atleast five years and more should consider this offering.

Disclaimer

The views are personal and are not part of the Outlook Money editorial Feature.