If The Market Goes Down 15%, I May Buy Indian Shares Says Jim Rogers

Veteran American investor and commodity expert Jim Rogers opened up in an interview with Nidhi Sinha, editor, Outlook Money, as part of the Wealth Wizards series, to talk about his life choices, where he would want to invest now and what he thinks about the Indian market. He also spoke about why the 21st century is the century for Asia and the markets that hold promise in the continent now, besides listing silver as the commodity that he prefers currently

What prompted you to move to Singapore?

It’s because I wanted my children to speak Mandarin. As far as I can see, Mandarin is going to be the most important language in their lifetime. We tried doing it in New York, but it wasn’t completely successful. So we tried many cities, and we decided on Singapore as a place where they could learn Mandarin.

I realised early in my life that China was going to be a great and successful country again. It was a disaster 30-40 years ago, but I realised that it was rising, and that if one spoke Mandarin, one would have an advantage. I knew because I don’t speak Mandarin. I don’t speak Hindi either. So I set out for my children to speak good Mandarin, and it has been a successful project. Both of my daughters speak the best Mandarin in this country and in their school.

Will it make them successful? No, it will take more than that, but at least it is a tool that will help them. Someday, if they wind up working in a Chinese restaurant, at least they will do well. You can ask me in 30 years if it was a good decision.

You have been known to be bullish on Asian markets and have been heard saying that this is the time to be in Asia. Was that a reason, too?

There was certainly a time when the UK was (the) best (place to be in). There was a time when the US was the best. But as far as I can determine, the 21st century is the century of Asia. Whether people like it or not, it’s a fact. It is happening, and it’s going to continue. You’re at the right place at the right time. If you look back over world history, there have been times when Asia has been on top and when other places have been (on top).

China is on the rise. Look at what’s happening in Korea and India. It’s astonishing. There are other countries like Vietnam, too.

Do you think the Indian markets are now overvalued with the markets touching new highs, or are you still positive on the Indian market?

Yes, the Indian markets are at an all-time high. I am disappointed that I don’t own any Indian shares. I have owned them previously, but I don’t have any now. I’ve made many mistakes in my life, and I hope I live long enough to make a few more.

For the first time in my life, it seems that Delhi understands economics, entrepreneurship and capitalism. It’s a wonderful thing because India has enormous potential and great prospects.

But do you plan to enter the Indian market now?

I’m not buying Indian shares now. I missed the move. But I’m watching, and if the market goes down 15 per cent tomorrow, which I doubt it will, I would probably buy Indian shares. There’s always a place to invest.

So which are the other countries you would rather look at now?

Right now, most of the markets around the world are very strong. The only market that’s depressed is China. It got hit with a virus, it also got hit with a huge property bubble which has finally popped. So the only market that I’m really looking at right now is China because it’s the only one that’s depressed.

Coming to your personal adventures, you are an avid biker. Do you think there are similarities between bike rides and market rides, given the risks, the feeling of thrill, adventure, pace, and so on?

I grew up in a very small village in the backwoods, where nobody knew much of anything about the world. For some reason, I grew up with the desire to see it all, to see the world, and so I have spent a reasonable amount of time looking for adventure and trying to see the world, including India.

I’m sure that someday my children will say, “we wish you spend more time working instead of adventure”, but everybody has to live their own life. I’m very glad I had adventure, including trips around India.

I would tell young investors that life experience is important for everybody, because you will learn about yourself, and about the world, and how many places are different.

The most important thing is to invest in what you know a lot about. Don’t listen to other people. If you invest in what you know about, you will probably be a successful investor. If you listen to hot tips, you will probably not be a successful investor, so don’t listen to other people.

Do you also want to tell young investors a bit about commodities you are bullish on? And India has an affinity towards gold and silver.

I learned a lot about silver and gold in India. It was a shock to see all these Indian women wearing gold and silver. It was remarkable. But I have been investing in gold and silver for many years.

I think that throughout history, when there have been problems, people like me want to own gold and silver. So, I do own gold and silver, and I will continue to own, and if they go down, I hope I will buy more of both. I bought some more silver recently. Gold is at an all-time high, but I’m not selling. (Rather) I am looking for a chance to buy.

A lot of advisors say that gold should be bought only for diversification. What is your view on that?

See, I own gold and silver as a way to make money, but I also mainly own them as an insurance policy.

If things collapse, I want to own some gold and silver, because I know that they will bail me out. So I don’t see it as something that is just for diversification. It is insurance. But if you are good at it, you can buy gold and silver at the right time, and you can make a lot of money. Silver, for instance, is down 40 per cent from its all-time high. So, when it goes up again, it’s going to go up a lot, and you can make a lot of money if you get your timing right. That’s true of gold as well.

So, it depends on the investor. If you are a good investor when it comes to precious metals, you will make a huge amount of money if you invest in what you know about. But if you don’t know anything about gold and silver, be careful. Know that you should own some as insurance, but invest in what you know about. Don’t listen to me.

You are also known as a contrarian investor. What makes you that?

People say that because if you don’t invest in what everybody else is investing in, you’re a contrarian. I never thought of myself as a contrarian. I just like to find something that’s cheap; usually, people ignore things that are cheap. So, people say he’s a contrarian because he’s investing in things that are ignored.

For me, that’s just the way you should invest. You should find cheap things, and cheap things are ignored, and that is usually a place that you find opportunities. So, if people call me a contrarian, it’s okay. But I would rather have them say that he’s a successful investor than giving me any other label.

So, currently, apart from China, what else do you find that can be called cheap these days?

Most markets are making new highs or are near their new highs now. Look at India; it’s at an all-time high. Japan was down for 35 years and now it’s making new highs (as of July end). So, most markets around the world are having a good time. But when everybody is having a good time, you and I should worry. It is becoming very difficult to find cheap markets these days.

You chose to “retire” early, but you have been an investor all your life. What do you have to say about your life in retirement?

I grew up in a very small village where nobody ever went anywhere, and I had the desire to see the world and know about the world. So, I have done that. It has been exciting and wonderful. I can remember my early travels around India, (which) I found astonishing. But that is true of many places I have visited.

Perhaps, I could have made more money if I had not had as much adventure, but everybody has to live their own life, and I wanted adventure, but I also invest.

nidhi@outlookindia.com