Economic Update

Global Economy Shows Brisk Activities Despite Inflationary Pressure, Delta Threats

Bond yields remain mixed but equities on a rally in most countries. Currencies show mixed trends

Global Economy Shows Brisk Activities Despite Inflationary Pressure, Delta Threats
Global Economy Shows Brisk Activities Despite Inflationary Pressure, Delta Threa
OLM Desk - 04 August 2021

Total e-way bills generated in July rose to 64.2 million (more than 17.3 per cent month-on-month), highest in 2021-22 so far and up from 54.7 million in June. In weekly comparison, while activity was off to a slow start in the first week of July with only 7 million bills generated, compared with 9 million generated a month back, momentum gained towards the end of July. Average daily e-way bill generation rose to 2.43 million in the last week of July, as against 2.33 million generated in the week before and also the highest since the week ending May 16.

US factory orders rose more than estimated by 1.5 per cent in June from 2.3 per cent in May. This was led by gains in machinery, computers and electronic products, electrical equipment and appliances. Orders for non-defence capital goods, excluding aircraft (proxy of business spending) also rose by 0.7 per cent in June from 0.5 per cent in May.

Japan’s services PMI slipped further in the contraction territory to 47.4 in July from 48 in June. The index has remained below 50 for the 18th consecutive month. With Covid-19 restrictions in place, new orders declined. Employment also dipped for the first time since December. Firms also reported an increase in input costs. On the other hand, Caixin’s services PMI index for China rose to 54.9 in July from a 14-month low of 50.3 in June, led by a steep increase in new orders.

Markets

Bonds: Global yields closed mixed. US 10-year yield fell a tad by 1bps (1.17 per cent) ahead of the jobs report. The UK 10-year yield closed flat at 0.52 per cent, eyeing a Bank of England policy meeting. Germany’s 10-year bonds rose by 1bps (down 0.48 per cent) as manufacturing PMI print remained buoyant. Crude prices fell by 0.7 per cent ($72 a barrel) over fears of spread of the contagious Delta variant. India’s benchmark 10-year yield closed flat at 6.2 per cent.

Currency: Except CNY and EUR (lower), other global currencies closed higher. DXY remained subdued amid an increase in Covid-19 cases. AUD rose the most by 0.5 per cent amid hawkish comments from RBA. The INR rose by 0.1 per cent, supported by global cues and lower oil prices. It is trading higher today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Equity: Global indices ended mixed as investors continued to monitor rising Covid-19 cases globally. Among other indices, both Nikkei and Shanghai Comp dropped by 0.5 per cent each. Sensex (1.6 per cent) on the other hand surged the most led by strong gains in banking and auto stocks. It is trading higher today; while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.

[Based on inputs from Bank of Baroda]

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