Strategic asset allocation is usually determined based on one’s investment objectives, time horizon and risk-taking ability. Subsequent portfolio actions are ideally only required when the allocations move away from the intended allocation on account of market action in the respective asset classes. However, the constant barrage of news and information that we are exposed to nudges us to react and act based on our interpretation of events and their consequences on our investments. This is often counterproductive as one ends up owning either a cluttered portfolio which is difficult to manage or a bunch of trending investments which may not be suitable to one’s risk appetite or goals. The continuous buying and selling also eats into returns in the form of higher expenses and taxes.
Investors often overestimate their ability to predict market movements. The odds of an individual successfully and consistently beating the market are very low in an era of widely disseminated news and information. Often one ends up exiting a profitable position too soon or waits too long to exit a losing proposition.
This bias keeps us from admitting a mistake and booking a loss. This results in us holding onto underperforming investments for longer than we should, hoping for them to rebound. This aversion to booking a loss negatively impacts returns over the long term as the funds could have otherwise been reinvested into potentially better-yielding avenues.
If a particular asset class has done well in the recent past, we tend to assume that it will continue to do well and double down on our investments in that asset class. This can be risky as no asset class can sustainably do well, making our portfolio vulnerable to steep falls. On the other hand, if an asset class has been down in the dumps off late, we tend to avoid it even if its long-term prospects have improved, potentially missing out on good returns.
This tendency results in us following our peers and crowds into or out of investments without due consideration of their fundamentals and their suitability to our investment objectives and risk profile. Social media and the Fear of Missing Out exacerbate this tendency to be greedy when others are greedy and fearful when others are fearful, potentially making us victims of market bubbles or panic selling.